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Acorn Fund

Equity · Options · Started Apr 2025

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.9%
Max Drawdown
63.5%
Trades
2736
Win Trades
29.4%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
36.8%
Subscribe $250/mo

About this strategy

Trader Name: Marley Holiday
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
Experience In Markets: 25 years
Preferred Markets: US Markets

Please contact me for further information: [email protected]

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20253.31.1-17.21.1-9.0118.7-10.4-10.6-4.832.6
20262.7-5.3-25.2-15.442.1-19.8-27.880.9-0.4-12.9-20.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/2/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age18 months
C2 Rank184
What it tradesOptions
# Trades2736
# Profitable805
% Profitable29.4%
Avg trade duration3.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown63.5%
drawdown periodOct 06, 2025 - July 22, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)2.9%
Avg win$496
Avg loss$199

Ratios

W:L ratio1.04
Sharpe Ratio0.32
Sortino Ratio0.69
Calmar Ratio0.88

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.15
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life36.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-33.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)18.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity76.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss87.0%
Chance of 20% account loss72.5%
Chance of 30% account loss56.5%
Chance of 40% account loss36.0%
Chance of 50% account loss15.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)6.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)642
C2 Score184
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)313

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187214
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$199
Avg Win$496
# Winners805
Sum Trade PL (losers)$384,187
Sum Trade PL (winners)$399,156
Num Months Winners7
# Losers1931
% Winners29.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table19

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5507.63
Avg Position Time (hrs)91.79
Avg Trade Length3.80
Last Trade Ago1

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)14.23
Daily leverage (max)175.79

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.76
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.85
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.73
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.22
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.09
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.88
SD1.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.76
df7
t0.70
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.20
Sortino ratio3.56
Upside Potential Ratio6.07
Upside part of mean1.50
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.96
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms5
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.88
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion1.02
Covariance0.16
r0.75
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.85
Mean Square Error0.54
DF error6
t(b)2.75
p(b)0.02
t(a)-0.77
p(a)0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.84
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.85
Mean0.53
SD0.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df7
t0.53
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.00
Sortino ratio2.02
Upside Potential Ratio4.51
Upside part of mean1.18
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.73
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms5
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.81
Covariance0.11
r0.70
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.77
Mean Square Error0.39
DF error6
t(b)2.38
p(b)0.03
t(a)-0.82
p(a)0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.53
Treynor index (mean / b)0.18
Jensen alpha (a)-0.77
VaR(95%)0.29
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.35
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
Mean1.11
SD1.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.78
df176
t0.65
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.17
Sortino ratio2.18
Upside Potential Ratio8.72
Upside part of mean4.43
Downside part of mean-3.32
Upside SD1.31
Downside SD0.51
N nonnegative terms78
N negative terms99
N of observations177
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion1.11
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion1.41
Covariance0.05
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.75
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.76
Mean Square Error1.96
DF error175
t(b)1.84
p(b)0.41
t(a)0.44
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.14
Treynor index (mean / b)1.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.76
Mean0.36
SD1.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.31
df176
t0.26
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.69
Sortino ratio0.65
Upside Potential Ratio6.96
Upside part of mean3.82
Downside part of mean-3.46
Upside SD1.01
Downside SD0.55
N nonnegative terms78
N negative terms99
N of observations177
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion1.15
Covariance0.05
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.68
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error1.31
DF error175
t(b)2.04
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.04
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.83
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.22
SD0.98
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.22
df130
t-0.16
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.55
Sortino ratio-0.40
Upside Potential Ratio6.46
Upside part of mean3.60
Downside part of mean-3.82
Upside SD0.81
Downside SD0.56
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms76
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion-0.22
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.98
Covariance0.05
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.56
Mean Square Error0.92
DF error129
t(b)2.85
p(b)0.35
t(a)-0.41
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.19
Jensen alpha (a)-0.56
Mean-0.67
SD0.94
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.71
df130
t-0.51
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.06
Sortino ratio-1.11
Upside Potential Ratio5.50
Upside part of mean3.32
Downside part of mean-3.99
Upside SD0.71
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms76
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion-0.67
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.94
Covariance0.05
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.99
Mean Square Error0.83
DF error129
t(b)3.04
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.77
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.56
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.56
Jensen alpha (a)-0.99
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.92
Median0.96
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.75
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 20.94
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.49
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.75
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations177
Minimum0.78
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.90
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low23
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum0.78
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.34
Quartile 10.34
Median0.34
Quartile 30.34
Maximum0.34
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.37
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.54
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.54
Quartile 10.54
Median0.54
Quartile 30.54
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-447751040
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)289
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.67
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.74
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.11
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.47
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.88
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.49
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.55
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.47
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.88
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.13

Trading record

Placed 6424 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPXW2608J7760 long1Oct 8, 2026Oct 8, 2026($272)
TNA2623J61 long1Oct 5, 2026Oct 8, 2026($145)
TQQQ2609J81 long2Oct 7, 2026Oct 8, 2026($219)
SPXW2608J7790 long1Oct 8, 2026Oct 8, 2026($262)
SPXW2608V7765 long1Oct 8, 2026Oct 8, 2026($282)
CCJ2606K100 long1Oct 6, 2026Oct 7, 2026($152)
SPXW2607J7795 long1Oct 7, 2026Oct 7, 2026($52)
SPXW2607J7780 long1Oct 7, 2026Oct 7, 2026$1,008
SPXW2607J7785 long1Oct 7, 2026Oct 7, 2026($92)
SPXW2607V7760 long1Oct 7, 2026Oct 7, 2026$78
SPXW2607V7760 long1Oct 7, 2026Oct 7, 2026$198
SPXW2606J7825 long1Oct 6, 2026Oct 6, 2026($142)
SPXW2606J7825 long1Oct 6, 2026Oct 6, 2026($272)
SPXW2606V7835 long1Oct 6, 2026Oct 6, 2026$48
TNA2616J61 long1Oct 5, 2026Oct 6, 2026($46)
SPXW2606V7835 long1Oct 6, 2026Oct 6, 2026($142)
SPXW2606J7825 long1Oct 6, 2026Oct 6, 2026$408
SPXW2605V7790 long1Oct 5, 2026Oct 5, 2026$1,568
SPXW2605J7750 long1Oct 5, 2026Oct 5, 2026$3,398
SPXW2605J7770 long1Oct 5, 2026Oct 5, 2026($52)
SPXW2605V7760 long1Oct 5, 2026Oct 5, 2026($222)
SPXW2605J7745 long1Oct 5, 2026Oct 5, 2026($282)
SPXW2605J7745 long1Oct 5, 2026Oct 5, 2026($22)
BOIL long100Oct 3, 2026Oct 5, 2026$40
SPXW2602V7710 long1Oct 2, 2026Oct 2, 2026($222)
SPXW2602V7710 long1Oct 2, 2026Oct 2, 2026$98
SPXW2602J7755 long1Oct 2, 2026Oct 2, 2026($242)
TQQQ2602J78 long1Oct 1, 2026Oct 2, 2026$153
SPXW2602J7755 long1Oct 2, 2026Oct 2, 2026($32)
SPXW2602V7705 long1Oct 2, 2026Oct 2, 2026($222)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.